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2009 Big Ten Conference Tournament Bracket
By Mike Ivcic
UltimateCapper Contributing Writer
While conference tournaments like the ACC and Big East might feature more high-profile teams with hopes of number 1 seeds and national championships, it's the Big Ten where nine teams still have hopes of an at-large bid top the NCAA's if they happen to fall short of winning the tournament. Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue are all locks, while 4-9 (Wisconsin, Ohio St, Penn St, Michigan, Minnesota, and Northwestern, in that order) have hopes to an invite as well. The first elimination game comes Thursday as Northwestern battles Minnesota, while Michigan and Penn State have easier games that both must win in order to remain in the picture. Here's where each team stands heading into the weekend in Indianapolis.
Note: All games to be played at Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis IN.
1. Michigan State (25-5, 15-3) - The prohibitive favorite enters the tournament four games better than any other team, and should be able to win the tournament with above average play. They were upset twice at home in the regular season (Penn St. and Northwestern) but avenged their lone road loss by beating Purdue in East Lansing the final weekend. They won't sleep on the Wildcats if NW gets past Minnesota, and they won their lone meetings with Wisconsin and OSU, so the path to the finals looks clear.
2. Illinois (23-8, 11-7) - Earning the 2 seed was huge for Illinois, as they avoid a quarterfinal matchup with a Penn St. team that beat the Illini twice. Instead, they'll likely get Michigan who only beat Illinois once. Not much of a consolation, but Bruce Weber likes this tournament and should have his team ready regardless of the opponent. They don't have as much talent as Purdue or Michigan St., but they know how to win close games and are playing for a good NCAA seed.
3. Purdue (22-9, 11-7) - Robbie Hummel is the key to any Boilermaker postseason run, whether Big Ten or NCAA. If his back is healthy - and it appears to be getting much better - this team can make a deep run and beat anyone, as evidenced by their 72-54 thrashing of the Spartans in West Lafayette. If it acts up at all, they become quite mediocre, and could drop in the quarterfinals. Purdue enters having lost 3 of 4, and could face a desperate Nittany Lion team that earned a split with the Boilermakers during conference play.
4. Wisconsin (19-11, 10-8) - Surprisingly, some experts feel that both Wisconsin and Ohio State enter their quarterfinal game with a bid to the winner and a bubble burst to the loser. Provided the game isn't a blowout (and what Big 10 not involving Indiana is?) Both of these teams will likely earn bids. The Badgers overcame a 6-game losing streak by winning 7 of 9 entering Friday, including a win over Ohio St. and completing the sweep of both Michigan and Penn St.
5. Ohio State (20-9, 10-8) - At first glance, the Buckeyes have what would be considered a "lock" resume for the tournament. A closer look reveals that Ohio State really has very little weight on the scale. The non-conference wins over Notre Dame and Miami FL have been greatly diminished, they got slaughtered by a 7th place Big East team in West Virginia (76-48), and went 1-6 against the four teams ahead of them in the Big Ten. In reality, this team is one that beat everyone they were supposed to and lost to everyone they were supposed to. It will get them into the Big Dance, but it probably won't get them into the Big Ten semis.
6. Penn State (21-10, 10-8) - The at-large candidacy for Penn State is similar to that of Providence in the Big East and Oklahoma State in the Big 12 - they absolutely cannot lose their first tournament game, they will become locks if they score an upset in their second round game, and they're in a very precarious position if they go 1-1. The Lions beat Illinois twice and Michigan State in East Lansing, but a non-conference strength of schedule in the 300's and a weaker overall profile (and a head-to-head loss) against the Wolverines might force Penn State to beat Purdue in the quarterfinals to earn a berth.
7. Michigan (19-12, 9-9) - The Wolverines have the most impressive non-conference resume (wins over Duke and UCLA), they split with both Purdue and potential second round opponent Illinois, and they swept Minnesota. They also got swept by both Ohio St. and Wisconsin. Michigan also beat Penn St. by 20 in their lone meeting, which should make them the sixth team in the pecking order for the selection committee, barring another loss to the Hawkeyes.
8. Minnesota (21-9, 9-9) - Getting swept in the season series by Michigan is not how Tubby Smith's crew wanted to enter the tournament. They will now likely have to beat Northwestern and Michigan St. to avoid the NIT. Their non-conference win over Louisville is huge, but don't be surprised if the Wildcats upset the Gophers on Thursday, as 'Sota comes in losers of 6 of their last 9 games.
9. Northwestern (17-12, 8-10) - The Wildcats missed a golden opportunity to stake claim to an at-large by losing the season finale at Ohio St. Still, Northwestern enters as one of the league's hotter teams, winning 4 of their last 6. The other loss besides the Buckeyes was a 72-45 drubbing at the hands of their first round opponent, Minnesota, so NW will need to learn from that game if they want to move on. They did beat the Gophers in Evanston back in January, right before they beat the Spartans, so the Wildcats have proven they can play with anyone. They’ll need to win at leas those two to get back into the at-large discussion
The Longshots:
10. Iowa (15-16, 5-13)
11. Indiana (6-24, 1-17)
Iowa upset both Michigan and Penn State down the stretch and will get another crack at the Wolverines in the first round, but expect Michigan to be ready this time around. Meanwhile Tom Crean will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat to get his 1-17 Hoosiers past Penn State, but 0-18 DePaul did just beat bubble resident Cincinnati in the Big East, so it has to provide at least some hope to the Indiana locker room that they can shock the college basketball world, too.
Analysis: Minnesota rebounds while Michigan and Penn State also advance in the first round. Look for Ohio St. to bow to Wisconsin while Michigan State also advances in the top half on Friday. The bottom half is the interesting part, as Michigan and Penn State are the potential bracket busters here, and it wouldn't be a shock to see those two match up in the semifinals as well. In reality, Purdue should be able to ride a partisan crowd to wins over both Penn State and Michigan to the finals, but it's Izzo's time in Indy this year.
Prediction: Michigan State
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